Guido NeidhöferEconomist

Guido Neidhöfer

Publications

Articles in refereed journals.

  1. Paizan, M.-A., Hervelin, J., Neidhöfer, G., Rapp, C., Röser, C., & Karst, K. (2026). Voraussetzungen für den Erwerb digitaler Kompetenzen im Spannungsfeld von Geschlecht, Migrationshintergrund und Teilnahmeform. Diskurs Kindheits- und Jugendforschung, 21(3), 395–414. https://doi.org/10.3224/diskurs.v21i3.06
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    This study examines how gender, migration background and voluntary or compulsory participation in digital education relate to young people’s self-efficacy, attitudes to digital media and career interests. It highlights the importance of tailoring digital education to different groups.

  2. McNamara, S., Neidhöfer, G., & Lehnert, P. (2026). Intergenerational mobility fosters innovation in Europe. Nature, 656(8128), 646–652. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10736-9
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    The study links changes in educational mobility across European regions to later innovation. It introduces a regional mobility atlas and shows that regions with greater improvements in mobility subsequently become more innovative, connecting opportunity with economic performance.

  3. Ciaschi, M., Marchionni, M., & Neidhöfer, G. (2026). Intergenerational mobility in Latin America: The multiple facets of social status and the role of mothers. Journal of Population Economics, 39, Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-025-01131-1
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    Using evidence from five Latin American countries, we measure mobility with information on both parents’ education and occupations. Accounting for occupation reveals greater persistence of family advantage, while maternal characteristics have become more informative over time.

  4. Neidhöfer, G. (2025). [Review of the book The escape from poverty: Breaking the vicious cycles perpetuating disadvantage, by O. De Schutter, H. Frazer, A.-C. Guio, & E. Marlier]. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 23(3), 977–979. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-025-09682-9
    About this review

    A review of The Escape from Poverty by Olivier De Schutter, Hugh Frazer, Anne-Catherine Guio and Eric Marlier, which addresses the mechanisms through which disadvantage is reproduced and policies intended to break persistent poverty.

  5. Brunori, P., Ferreira, F. H. G., & Neidhöfer, G. (2025). Inequality of opportunity and intergenerational persistence in Latin America. Oxford Open Economics, 4(Supplement 1), i167–i199. https://doi.org/10.1093/ooec/odae021
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    How strong is the transmission of socio-economic status across generations in Latin America? To answer this question, we first review the empirical literature on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity for the region, summarizing results for both income and educational outcomes. We find that, whereas the income mobility literature is hampered by a paucity of representative datasets containing linked information on parents and children, the inequality of opportunity approach – which relies on other inherited and pre-determined circumstance variables – has suffered from arbitrariness in model selection. Two new data-driven approaches – one aligned with the ex-ante and the other with the ex-post conception of inequality of opportunity – are introduced to address this shortcoming. They yield a set of new inequality of opportunity estimates for 27 surveys covering 9 Latin American countries over various years between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, more than half of the current generation’s inequality is inherited from the past – with a range between 44 and 63%. We argue that on balance, given the parsimony of the population partitions, these are still likely to be underestimates.

  6. Arntz, M., Lipowski, C., Neidhöfer, G., & Zierahn-Weilage, U. (2025). Computers as stepping stones? Technological change and equality of labor market opportunities. Journal of Labor Economics, 43(2), 503–543. https://doi.org/10.1086/727490
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    This paper asks whether technological change increases the importance of skills relative to parental background in the labour market. It examines how computer use and technological adoption relate to career progression and equality of opportunity for workers from different educational backgrounds.

  7. Bracco, J., Ciaschi, M., Gasparini, L., Marchionni, M., & Neidhöfer, G. (2025). The impact of COVID-19 on education in Latin America: Long-run implications for poverty and inequality. Review of Income and Wealth, 71(1), Article e12687. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12687
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    We investigate how pandemic-related educational disruption could affect future poverty and inequality in Latin America. The analysis combines evidence on changes in schooling with projections of their longer-term consequences for income and social disadvantage.

  8. Neidhöfer, G., Lustig, N., & Larroulet, P. (2025). Projecting the impact of COVID-19 on education and intergenerational mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 23(2), 371–396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-024-09648-3
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    Microsimulations for eight Sub-Saharan African countries project the effects of lost instruction during COVID-19 on secondary school completion and educational mobility. The analysis examines differences by gender and parental education, highlighting risks to children from disadvantaged backgrounds.

  9. Ciaschi, M., & Neidhöfer, G. (2024). Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina. The World Bank Economic Review, 38(3), 558–579. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhad041
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    Using longitudinal data for Argentina, this paper estimates the labor supply reaction of spouses and children, as well as the interactions between them, following the job loss of their husband or father. The findings show that job loss by the household head has a positive and significant impact on the labor supply of other household members. However, it increases the likelihood of spouses to switch to informal and downgraded employment, and of children to drop out from education. While effects are stronger among vulnerable households, coverage of social security does not provide enough support in coping with unemployment shocks. Mothers’ labor participation, however, may allow their daughters to continue their education.

  10. Neidhöfer, G., Ciaschi, M., Gasparini, L., & Serrano, J. (2024). Social mobility and economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 29(2), 327–359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-023-09234-8
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    We track educational mobility across Latin American regions and link the participation of successive cohorts in the economy to regional development. Improvements in mobility are associated with higher income and labour formality and lower poverty and inequality.

  11. Lustig, N., Martínez Pabón, V., Neidhöfer, G., & Tommasi, M. (2023). Short and long-run distributional impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America. Economía, 22(1), 96–116. https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.3
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    We simulate the immediate and longer-term distributional consequences of COVID-19 in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. The analysis considers the role of emergency social assistance and the lasting implications of educational disruption for poverty and inequality.

  12. Neidhöfer, G., Lustig, N., & Tommasi, M. (2021). Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: Prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 19(3), 571–598. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-021-09501-x
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    We project how school closures and other pandemic disruptions could affect the transmission of educational disadvantage in 17 Latin American countries. The exercise highlights the risk that temporary educational shocks may deepen inequalities across generations.

  13. Corneo, G., & Neidhöfer, G. (2021). Income redistribution and self-selection of immigrants. Journal of Public Economics, 198, Article 104420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104420
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    Using administrative data on Italian citizens abroad, we examine how redistribution in destination countries affects migrant selection. The study considers both observable and unobservable characteristics and uses policy simulations to explore implications for migration patterns.

  14. Gambaro, L., Neidhöfer, G., & Spieß, C. K. (2021). The effect of early childhood education and care services on the integration of refugee families. Labour Economics, 72, Article 102053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102053
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    This paper studies whether refugee children’s attendance at early childhood education and care supports their parents’ integration in Germany. It exploits geographical differences in service availability and refugee allocation to examine effects beyond the children themselves.

  15. Neidhöfer, C., Buechler, C., Neidhöfer, G., Bierbaum, G., Hannet, I., Hoerauf, A., & Parčina, M. (2021). Global distribution patterns of carbapenemase-encoding bacteria in a new light: Clues on a role for ethnicity. Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology, 11, Article 659753. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcimb.2021.659753
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    We examine geographical patterns in carbapenemase-encoding bacteria using isolates detected at a German hospital. The analysis studies the relationship between bacterial distribution and patients’ ethnic backgrounds, contributing evidence relevant to understanding transmission patterns.

  16. Hebsaker, M., Neidhöfer, G., & Pfeiffer, F. (2021). Intergenerational mobility and self-selection on unobserved skills: New evidence. Journal for Labour Market Research, 55, Article 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-021-00291-3
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    This study proposes a novel way to examine self-selection on unobserved skills and applies it to a sample of young males seeking asylum in 2015/2016 in Germany. First, the degree of intergenerational mobility of these refugees is assessed, specifically their educational improvement in comparison to their parents’ level of education. Next, the estimates are compared with the level of educational mobility of similar-aged males in the refugees’ regions of origin. The idea is that this difference indicates the pattern of self-selection on unobserved skills such as grit and motivation. Our findings hint at positive selection on such unobserved skills among these young male refugees.

  17. Brunori, P., & Neidhöfer, G. (2021). The evolution of inequality of opportunity in Germany: A machine learning approach. Review of Income and Wealth, 67(4), 900–927. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12502
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    We develop a machine learning approach to measuring inequality of opportunity and apply it to Germany over three decades. The analysis traces changes in inherited disadvantage and the persistent importance of family background and pre-reunification residence.

  18. Neidhöfer, G., Serrano, J., & Gasparini, L. (2018). Educational inequality and intergenerational mobility in Latin America: A new database. Journal of Development Economics, 134, 329–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.016
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    We construct comparable measures of educational mobility for 18 Latin American countries over more than five decades. The database enables comparisons across countries and cohorts and supports analysis of how mobility relates to wider economic and institutional conditions.

  19. Neidhöfer, G., & Niño-Zarazúa, M. (2019). The long(er)-term impacts of Chile Solidario on human capital and labor income. Population and Development Review, 45(S1), 209–244. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12274
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    We evaluate the longer-term effects of Chile Solidario, a social protection programme linking vulnerable households to support and services. The study examines the programme’s implications for human capital and labour income and differences in impacts across groups.

  20. Neidhöfer, G. (2019). Intergenerational mobility and the rise and fall of inequality: Lessons from Latin America. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 17(4), 499–520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-019-09415-9
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    Using harmonised data from 18 Latin American countries and multiple cohorts, I examine how childhood inequality relates to mobility in adulthood. The study also investigates associations with economic growth and public education.

  21. Neidhöfer, G., & Stockhausen, M. (2019). Dynastic inequality compared: Multigenerational mobility in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Review of Income and Wealth, 65(2), 383–414. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12364
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    Using harmonized household survey data, we analyze long‐run social mobility in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, and test recent theories of multigenerational persistence of socioeconomic status. In this country comparison setting, we find evidence against a universal law of social mobility. Our results show that the long‐run persistence of socioeconomic status and the validity of a first‐order Markov chain in the intergenerational transmission of human capital is country‐specific. Furthermore, we find that the direct and independent effect of grandparents' social status on grandchildren's status tends to vary by gender and institutional context.

  22. Bönke, T., & Neidhöfer, G. (2018). Parental background matters: Intergenerational mobility and assimilation of Italian immigrants in Germany. German Economic Review, 19(1), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/geer.12114
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    We investigate the hypothesis of failed integration and low social mobility of immigrants. An intergenerational assimilation model is tested empirically on household survey data and validated against registry data provided by the Italian Embassy in Germany. Although we confirm substantial disparities between educational achievements of immigrants and natives, we find that the children of Italian immigrants exhibit high intergenerational mobility and no less opportunity than natives to achieve high schooling degrees. These findings suggest a rejection of the failed assimilation hypothesis. Additionally, we evaluate different patterns by time of arrival, Italian region of origin and language spoken at home.